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Post Would NATO Membership for Ukraine Spark WWIII?
Created by John Eipper on 10/14/22 5:05 AM

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Would NATO Membership for Ukraine Spark WWIII? (Consoly Leon Arias, Spain / Canary, 10/14/22 5:05 am)

A few days before the eighth month of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the idea is circulating that if Ukraine were admitted to NATO today, the conflict could lead to World War III. This is how blunt an official of the Russian Security Council was yesterday. However, only a few hours after Putin formally proclaimed the annexation of 18% of Ukraine, the Ukrainian president announced an unexpected proposal to fast-track NATO membership.

Such a membership in the Atlantic alliance seems to be far from happening, since the 30 members of the organization would have to give their absolute consent, and at the moment, there is no unanimity.

"Kiev is well aware that such a step would mean a guaranteed escalation to World War III," argues Russian Security Council undersecretary Alexander Venediktov. For his part, Nikolai Patrushev, a powerful Putin ally, pointed out that Ukraine's request is pure propaganda because the West understands the consequences of Ukraine's NATO membership.

Putin has repeatedly criticized the United States for pushing for NATO's eastward expansion, especially for courting former Soviet republics such as Ukraine and Georgia, which Russia considers part of its own sphere of influence.

Thus, on September 21, Putin warned the West that he was not lying when he said he would be willing to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia from the major Western powers.

In unison, the European Union (EU) High Representative for Foreign Policy, Spain's Josep Borrell, warned that a potential nuclear attack by Moscow against Ukraine would provoke a Western military response that would annihilate the Russian army, and urged the Russian President not to bluff. From Belgium, Borrell expressed concern that there are still five countries (including Russia) that refused last Wednesday to condemn the Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory at the UN General Assembly. Thirty-five other countries, including China, South Africa and India, abstained from this vote.

"Twenty percent of the global community decided neither to support nor to reject Russian annexations. For me, that's too many. We are happy because the bottle is quite full, but it is still a bit empty. We have to continue working to make the world reject this war even more clearly," said Borrell, who acknowledged that diplomacy is often not only about values, but also about interests and dependence on Moscow.

Zelensky, for his part, said recently that "this is not a war that Russia is waging only against Ukraine. This is a war for the right to dictate the conditions in Europe, for what the future world order will be like."

Finally, during the last NATO summit in Madrid, the Ukrainian leader asked NATO leaders: "Hasn't our contribution to the security of Europe been enough? That is why it is absolutely necessary to support Ukraine, even now, with weapons, finances and political sanctions against Russia, which will stop its ability to pay for the war."

However, after eight months of war in the heart of Europe, Zelensky's efforts to obtain NATO support have not seemed to bear fruit, since it would jeopardize the security of all Europe.

JE comments:  Here's my prediction:  Ukraine will enter NATO, but only after the conclusion of this war.  Membership is unthinkable at present, as the treaty will define Russia's adventure in Ukraine as tantamount to an invasion of Poland, Romania--or New York, for that matter.  Putin here is correct:  it would be WWIII.  It has to, by definition.

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